The Future

Is this really what will happen?

1. Auto repair shops go away. A gasoline engine has 20,000 individual parts. An electrical engine has 20. Electric cars are sold with lifetime guarantees and are only repaired by dealers. It takes only 10  minutes to remove and replace an electric engine. Faulty electric engines are not repaired in the dealership but are sent to a regional repair shop that repairs them with robots Essentially, if your electric “Check Motor” light comes on, you simply drive up to what looks like a car wash. Your car is towed through while you have a cup of coffee and out comes your car with a new engine.

2. Gas stations go away. Parking meters are replaced by meters that dispense electricity. All companies install electrical recharging stations.

3. All major auto manufacturers have already designated 5-6 billion dollars each to start building new plants that only build electric cars.

4. Coal industries go away. Oil companies go away.  Drilling for oil stops.

5. Homes produce and store more electrical energy during the day and then they use and will sell it back to the grid. The grid stores it and dispenses it to industries that are high electricity users.

        A baby of today will only see personal cars in museums.

The FUTURE is approaching faster than one can handle! In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide. Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they went bankrupt.

What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next 5-10 years and, most people won’t see it coming. Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later you would never take pictures on film again?

Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975 The first ones only had 10,000 pixels, but followed Moore’s law. So as with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment for a time, before it became way superior and became mainstream in only a few short years.  It will now happen again (but much faster) with Artificial Intelligence, health,
autonomous and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs.

 

WAIT, THERE’S MORE!!!

 Welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution.

Welcome to the Exponential Age!!

 

1. Planet Earth is changing, not simply in the climate that affects it
  
2. Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.

Uber is just a software tool, they don’t own any cars, yet they are now the biggest taxi company in the world.

4. Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don’t own any properties.

5. Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go-player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected.

6. In the U.S., young lawyers already don’t get jobs. Because of IBM’s Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans. So, if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% fewer lawyers in the future, only omniscient specialists will remain.

      6A. Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, its 4 times more accurate than human nurses.

7. Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans. In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.

8. Autonomous cars: In 2018 the  first self-driving cars will appear for the public. Around 2020, the complete industry
will start to be disrupted. You don’t need to own a car anymore. You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it you only pay for the driven distance and can be productive while driving. The very young children of today will never get a driver’s license and will never own a car.

      8A. It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% fewer cars for that. We can transform former parking spaces into parks.  1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one accident every 60,000 mi (100,000 km), with autonomous driving that will drop to 1 accident in 6 million miles (10 million km). That will save a million lives worldwide each year.

      8B. Most car companies will doubtless become bankrupt. Traditional car companies try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels.

      8C. Many engineers from Volkswagen and Audi are completely terrified of Tesla

9. Insurance companies will have massive trouble because, without accidents, the insurance will become 100x cheaper. Their car insurance business model will disappear.

10. Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute, people will move further away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood.

11. Electric cars will become mainstream about 2020. Cities will be less noisy because all new cars will run on electricity.

12. Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can now see the burgeoning impact.

13. Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil. Energy companies are desperately trying to limit access to the grid to prevent competition from home solar installations, but that simply cannot continue… technology will take care of that strategy.

14. With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination of salt water now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter (@ 0.25 cents). We don’t have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking water. Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean water as he  wants, for nearly no cost.

15. Health: The Tricorder X price will be announced this year. There are companies who will build a medical device (called the “Tricorder” from  Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and you breath into it. It then analyses 54 bio-markers that will identify nearly any disease. It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have access to world class medical analysis, nearly for free.

16. 3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from $18,000 to $400 within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100 times faster. All major shoe companies have already started 3D printing shoes.

17. Some spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports. The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large amount of spare parts they used to have in the past.

18. At the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at home.

19. In China, they already 3D printed and built a complete 6-story office building. By 2027, 10% of everything that’s being produced will be 3D printed.

20. Business opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go in, first ask yourself: “In the future, do I think we will have that?” And, if the answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner?

      20A. If it doesn’t work with your phone, forget the idea. Any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed to failure in the 21st century.

      20B. Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new jobs in such a short time.

21. Agriculture: There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the future. Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their field instead of working all day on their fields.

22. Aeroponics will need much less water. The first Petri dish produced veal is now available and will be cheaper than cow produced veal in 2018. Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows. Imagine if we don’t need that space anymore.

23. There are several startups who will bring insect protein to the market shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It will be labeled as “alternative protein source”.

 

So, WELCOME TO THE FUTURE!!!  It starts NOW!!

http://www.dailytenminutes.com/2017/11/some-thoughts-on-technology-and-future.html

CIA releases 13 million pages of declassified documents online

What follows is a BBC article that discusses some of the contents of this CIA release

The trove includes the papers of Henry Kissinger, who served as secretary of state under presidents Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford, as well as several hundred thousand pages of intelligence analysis and science research and development. I think that you will find the segment on famous spoon bending Uri Geller is fascinating. I quote from the text as follows:

“Memos detail how Mr Geller was able to partly replicate pictures drawn in another room with varying – but sometimes precise – accuracy, leading the researchers to write that he “demonstrated his paranormal perceptual ability in a convincing and unambiguous manner”.”

If this statement is correct then this demonstration that the phenomena of non-locality in physics is correct.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-38663522

Have UFOs Disrupted Nukes in US, UK?

Ex-military men say unknown intruders have monitored and even tampered with American nuclear missiles

[I am a bit skeptical myself]

Quote:

“WASHINGTON, Sept. 15 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ — Witness testimony from more than 120 former or retired military personnel points to an ongoing and alarming intervention by unidentified aerial objects at nuclear weapons sites, as recently as 2003. In some cases, several nuclear missiles simultaneously and inexplicably malfunctioned while a disc-shaped object silently hovered nearby. Six former U.S. Air Force officers and one former enlisted man will break their silence about these events at the National Press Club and urge the government to publicly confirm their reality.

One of them, ICBM launch officer Captain Robert Salas, was on duty during one missile disruption incident at Malmstrom Air Force Base and was ordered to never discuss it. Another participant, retired Col. Charles Halt, observed a disc-shaped object directing beams of light down into the RAF Bentwaters airbase in England and heard on the radio that they landed in the nuclear weapons storage area. Both men will provide stunning details about these events, and reveal how the U.S. military responded.”

Introductory news video:

UFO press club video:

Interesting historical trivia

A few interesting facts from history:

WHY:
Why do men’s clothes have buttons on the right while women’s clothes have buttons on the left?

BECAUSE:
When buttons were invented, they were very expensive and worn primarily by the rich. Since most people are right-handed, it is easier to push buttons on the right through holes on the left. Because wealthy women were dressed by maids, dressmakers put the buttons on the maid’s right! And that’s where women’s buttons have remained since.

WHY
Why are zero scores in tennis called ‘love’?

BECAUSE:
In France , where tennis became popular, the round zero on the scoreboard looked like an egg and was called ‘l’oeuf,’ which is French for ‘the egg.’ When tennis was introduced in the US , Americans (mis)pronounced it ‘love.’

WHY:
Why do X’s at the end of a letter signify kisses?

BECAUSE:
In the Middle Ages, when many people were unable to read or write, documents were often signed using an X. Kissing the X represented an oath to fulfil obligations specified in the document. The X and the kiss eventually became synonymous.

WHY:
Why is shifting responsibility to someone else called ‘passing the buck’?

BECAUSE:
A: In card games, it was once customary to pass an item, called a buck, from player to player to indicate whose turn it was to deal. If a player did not wish to assume the responsibility of dealing, he would ‘pass the buck’ to the next player.

WHY:
Why do people clink their glasses before drinking a toast?

BECAUSE:
In early religious times people were indoctrinated to believe that the Devil lurked everywhere. So in order to frighten him away, and any other evil spirits as well, glasses were clinked together to frighten the Devil and Demons away.

WHY:
Why do we “Drink a Toast” to someone we wish to honour?

BECAUSE:
As above, In early religious times when the Devil was thought to lurk in drinks, a small piece of dry bread, like today’s toast, was dipped into the drink to soak up the Devil and other evil spirits so it would not be passed to the person being honoured.  Toasting cups as they were known were multi handled in order to be passed from one person to another and finally the Honoured One for each to sip from. In due course people drank from their own cup or glass.

WHY:
Why are people in the public eye said to be ‘in the limelight’?

BECAUSE:
Invented in 1825, limelight was used in lighthouses and theatres by burning a cylinder of lime which produced a brilliant light. In the theatre, a performer ‘in the limelight’ was the centre of attention.

WHY:
Why is someone who is feeling great ‘on cloud nine’?

BECAUSE
Types of clouds are numbered according to the altitudes they attain, with nine being the highest cloud. If someone is said to be on cloud nine, that person is floating well above worldly cares.

WHY:
In golf, where did the term ‘Caddie’ come from?

BECAUSE:
When Mary Queen of Scots went to France as a young girl, Louis, King of France, learned that she loved the Scots game ‘golf.’ He had the first course outside of Scotland built for her enjoyment. To make sure she was properly chaperoned (and guarded) while she played, Louis hired cadets from a military school to accompany her. Mary liked this a lot and when returned to Scotland (not a very good idea in the long run), she took the practice with her. In French, the word cadet is pronounced ‘ca-day’ and the Scots changed it into ‘caddie.’

WHY:
Why are many coin collection jar
banks shaped like pigs?

BECAUSE:
Long ago, dishes and cookware in Europe were made of a dense orange clay called ‘pygg’. When people saved coins in jars made of this clay, the jars became known as ‘pygg banks.’ When an English potter misunderstood the word, he made a container that resembled a pig. And it caught on.

Have you ever heard of a locality in the U.S.A. called Bohemian Grove?

It seems that there may be such a place and it is possible that some of the most important decisions made in the world are made at this little known locality

If you are interested in the fabled Bohemian Grove you will probably find these two url links of interest. The second item seems to be dated:

1] Washington Post Article: https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/blogpost/post/bohemian-grove-where-the-rich-and-powerful-go-to-misbehave/2011/06/15/AGPV1sVH_blog.html?utm_term=.b51aca36c97c

2] A website titled “The secrets of Bohemian Grove

Have trillions of dollars been misappropriated [thieved] from Australian national welfare fund?

If this has happened Australian pensioners would now be legally entitled to a pension of $1000 per week.

Source: Brian Hale, The Courier-Mail-January 11, 2017

Quote:

“THE stigma of charity should be removed from the age pension. It should be an entitlement earned by the person’s personal contribution to the fund,” said a very famous Australian long ago.  Who? Former Prime Minister Sir Robert Menzies. When? At the time the current pension scheme was introduced. Fund? What fund and what personal contribution?

You wouldn’t know about it listening to the major parties’ politicians or Senate crossbencher David Leyonhjelm who, echoing former Treasurer Joe Hockey, told the ABC he wants Australians to drop their sense of entitlement to the aged pension, which should only be paid to poor people, and receiving it should be “nothing to be proud of”.

Well, no David, most pensioners worked and spent a lifetime paying for their pensions. It’s not welfare and, when it was introduced, it was actually meant to be an entitlement. A 7.5 per cent tithe was taken from wages to put into a fund to pay their pensions. Just as workers now have superannuation collected.

What a good idea! Unfortunately (for pensioners) the Labor Party insisted the contributions shouldn’t be kept in individual accounts as in the UK and the US where retirees get the entitlement earned by their contributions. Instead, it all went into one big pot, the National Welfare Fund. And when the pot got really big, the politicians took it.

They won’t talk about the historical facts because these days politicians have developed a new “ending the age of entitlement” narrative while pushing the disingenuous line that younger workers are paying tax to support pensioners.  Menzies was opposition leader when then prime minister Ben Chifley announced a National Welfare Fund to pay for pensions, unemployment relief, child endowments, even health care with a 7.5 per cent tax increase.

Menzies insisted that the Compulsory Contribution (levy) should be kept completely separate; that it should be paid straight into a trust account and not mixed with the general revenue.  The levy and the National Welfare Fund began on January 1, 1946, and contributions were shown separately on workers’ personal tax assessments for 1946, 1947, 1948, 1949 and 1950, with the money paid straight into the special fund from which claims were paid out.

In 1950 the balance in the fund was almost £100 million or $200 million – in today’s money the equivalent of several trillion dollars.

But the pot was too big for the politicians to leave alone. Menzies, supported by the Australian Labor Party, amended the Acts governing the fund so the compulsory contributions levy was lumped in with people’s income tax and the whole lot paid straight into consolidated revenue.  But the compulsory 7.5 per cent “levy” was still collected and spent.

In 1977 Liberal PM Malcolm Fraser transferred the balance left in the welfare fund account (by then almost $500 million, or several trillion in today’s terms) to consolidated revenue. But still the 7.5 per cent was taken out of everyone’s pay packet every week.  Then in 1985 the Labor Government repealed Acts No. 39, 40 and 41 of 1945 (The National Welfare Fund Acts) and introduced income and asset testing, thus excluding millions of levy and taxpaying Australians from receiving the pension for which they had paid.

But still the 7.5 per cent levy continued to be collected (while hidden in general income tax revenue.) And to this day it still is collected.

There have been estimates that the trillions of dollars stolen from the fund and the money paid and similarly stolen (sorry, transferred) since 1985 would be enough to pay a non-means-tested pension to every retiree of far more than $500 a week.  If it had been invested, like the Future Fund, the pension might be $1000 a week. Small beer compared with the politicians’ pension deals but a huge leap for older Aussies, 420,000 of whom had their age pensions cancelled or reduced from January 1.

Ironically, they are the very pensioners who would have the highest pensions if their personal contribution to the “fund” was the yardstick as in the UK and the US.  They probably generally have been Coalition voters. But no more.

Spend time in the RSLs, bowling clubs, voluntary organisations and the like, where these people gather and it is clear they are Liberal-National voters no more.  In lieu of an Australian Trump, they see no alternative but One Nation.

The Coalition, supported by Labor and the Greens, has turned 180 degrees from Menzies’ view the age pension is “an entitlement earned by the person’s personal contribution to the fund” and portrays it as charity.  For many Australians this alone shows how far the parties they once supported have strayed from principle.

The arrogant politicians think they can hypocritically and sanctimoniously speak condescendingly of older Australians.  They are in for a shock.

Brian Hale is a former business editor ofThe Courier-Mail and The Australian